Forecasting Demand for Electricity in Mauritius using Support Vector Machines for Sustainable Energy Planning

By Chandradeo Bokhoree and Kailash Balnac.

Published by The Sustainability Collection

Format Price
Article: Print $US10.00
Article: Electronic $US5.00

Small Island Developing States (SIDS), like Mauritius, share similar sustainable development challenges inherent to their characteristics. Growth in the global energy demand and fears of energy supply disruptions, have triggered much debate geared towards the necessity for sustainable energy planning. Accurate forecasting of future electricity demand is an essential input to this process. Such forecasts are also important in regional or national power system strategy Management.

Non linearity of the factors adds complexity to the electricity load forecasting process. Statistical learning theory, in the form of Support Vector Machines (SVMs), have been used successfully to tackle nonlinear regression and time series problems. However application to the electricity demand forecasting problem with focus on SIDS’ characteristics is lacking. This paper focuses on the application of SVMs to forecast electricity demand of a SIDS member, Mauritius. A two years ahead forecast, for 2008 and 2009, was derived using monthly time series data from years 1996 to 2007. The inputs considered were historical electricity demand and prices, temperature, humidity, population and GDP.

Keywords: Electricity Demand Forecasting, Electricity Load Forecasting, Support Vector Machines, Statistical Learning Theory

The International Journal of Environmental, Cultural, Economic and Social Sustainability, Volume 5, Issue 2, pp.271-284. Article: Print (Spiral Bound). Article: Electronic (PDF File; 1.566MB).

Dr. Chandradeo Bokhoree

Senior Lecturer, School of Business Informatics and Software Engineering, University of Technology Mauritius, Pointe aux Sables, Mauritius

Chandradeo Bokhoree, a native of Mauritius, was educated at the University of Mauritius, and at Loughborough University in UK, where he was awarded his PhD in 2004. He was a research scholar at the New Jersey Institute of Technology in the USA in 2001/2003. He was a Lecturer in the School of Business Informatics and Software Engineering at the University of Technology, Mauritius until 2006, when he was appointed as Senior Lecturer. His research interests focus on the development and application of modelling techniques and adaptive technologies for sustainable development. He is currently the principle investigator on numerous consultancy projects geared towards finding practical solutions for a sustainable Mauritius.

Kailash Balnac

Research Student, Research Cell, School of Sustainable Development Science, University of Technology Mauritius, Pointe Aux Sables, Mauritius

Kailash Balnac holds an MSc in Computational Science and Engineering from the University of Technology Mauritius (UTM). He is currently a full time MPhil/PhD research scholar at the UTM and is conducting research in Energy Modeling with a focus on Small Island Developing States (SIDS). Kailash is also a member of the International Association for Energy Economics.


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