Sustaining Peace and Development: An Assessment of the Philippines' Counterinsurgency Program

By Wilfred S. Manuela Jr. and Adonis R. Bajao.

Published by The International Journal of Sustainability in Economic, Social and Cultural Context

Format Price
Article: Print $US10.00
Published online: October 31, 2014 $US5.00

This paper examines the factors that affect the Philippine government’s fight against insurgency using time series data consisting of socioeconomic and military variables for the period 1989–2008. The econometric model consists of four equations estimated separately using ordinary least squares. The results of the socioeconomic factors equations indicate that an increase in gross domestic product per capita tends to reduce the number of communist and Islamic insurgents while higher unemployment rate and consumer price index tend to increase the number of communist and Islamic insurgents. The results of the military factors equations indicate that military variables such as the number of combat personnel and vehicles used in the fight against insurgency tend to reduce the number of communist and Islamic insurgents, suggesting that the military’s strategies on counterinsurgency are working. Overall the results indicate that the counterinsurgency efforts of the government should involve both socioeconomic development and military intervention in the affected areas.

Keywords: Counterinsurgency, Armed forces, Peace and development

The International Journal of Social Sustainability in Economic, Social, and Cultural Context, Volume 9, Issue 4, December 2014, pp.55-66. Article: Print (Spiral Bound). Published online: October 31, 2014 (Article: Electronic (PDF File; 667.385KB)).

Dr. Wilfred S. Manuela Jr.

Associate Professor, Leadership and Strategy Department, John Gokongwei School of Management, Ateneo de Manila University, Quezon City, Philippines

Wilfred S. Manuela Jr. is an associate professor at the Leadership and Strategy Department, John Gokongwei School of Management, Ateneo de Manila University. He has a Ph.D. in Business Administration from the University of the Philippines, Diliman, Quezon City. His research interests include applied industrial organization and applied econometrics. His work on counterinsurgency is a collaboration with an officer of the Philippine Army.

Dr. Adonis R. Bajao

Lieutenant Colonel, Philippine Army, Armed Forces of the Philippines, Quezon City, Philippines

Adonis R. Bajao is a lieutenant colonel in the Philippine Army, Armed Forces of the Philippines. He has a Doctor of Public Administration degree from the University of the Philippines, Diliman. His research interests include counterinsurgency and Philippine military history.